Nifty F&O Analysis | Critical Expiry on 27th March | Volatility & Key Market Insights

As we approach the Nifty F&O expiry in just two days, market participants are adjusting their positions, leading to heightened volatility. Nifty F&O analysis points towards more short-covering ahead of Expiry on 27th March. The Nifty 50 index closed at 23,668.65, registering a marginal gain of 0.04%. Meanwhile, Nifty March futures ended at 23,705.35, posting a 0.03% increase while maintaining a 36.7-point premium over the spot price.

A notable shift was observed in the Nifty futures premium, which contracted by 4.3 points, signaling caution among traders. Additionally, combined open interest (OI) in Nifty futures (March, April & May contracts) surged by 4.2%, indicating fresh positioning ahead of expiry. Meanwhile, trading volume jumped by 21.68%, reflecting increased activity in the derivatives segment.

Nifty F&O Analysis : Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) Insights

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) serves as a crucial indicator of market sentiment, especially during expiry week:

Nifty March PCR: 0.956 (declined from 1.170)

Nifty April PCR: 1.415 (rose from 1.400)

Nifty May PCR: 1.561 (declined from 1.566)

Total Nifty PCR (all expiries): 1.038 (fell from 1.220)

A sharp drop in March PCR signals unwinding of put positions, which often happens as traders roll over their contracts to the next series ahead of expiry. The rise in April PCR suggests traders are starting to accumulate positions in the new contract cycle.

FII & DII Activity in Cash Market

FIIs remained strong net buyers, infusing ₹5,371.57 Cr into the cash market.

DIIs booked profits, leading to net selling of ₹2,768.87 Cr.

The persistent FII buying trend highlights continued institutional confidence in the Indian markets, even as DIIs capitalize on recent gains.

Nifty F&O Analysis : FII Derivatives Market Activity

With March F&O expiry approaching, FIIs made significant adjustments in their derivatives positions:

FII Index Future Open Interest Long Ratio: 32.94% (up from 32.13%)

FII Index Future Volume Long Ratio: 52.32% (up from 50.83%)

FII Call Option Open Interest Long Ratio: 53.83% (up from 53.34%)

FII Put Option Open Interest Long Ratio: 54.49% (up from 52.02%)

The rise in Index Future Long Ratio suggests that FIIs are increasing long positions, possibly anticipating continued strength post-expiry. The uptick in put option holdings indicates a mixed sentiment, where some traders may be hedging against potential volatility.

Market Outlook & Expiry Considerations

With Nifty F&O expiry just two days away, increased volatility is expected as traders adjust their positions.

The contraction in Nifty futures premium, despite an increase in OI, suggests that traders are rolling over positions cautiously, possibly due to uncertainty regarding post-expiry momentum.

The decline in March PCR indicates that short-term put sellers are unwinding positions, which often happens as contracts near expiry.

Check Previous Day’s Data: Nifty Futures Analysis – March 24, 2025

FII Trading Stats	25.03.25	24.03.25	21.03.25
FII Cash (Provisional Data)	5,371.57	3,055.76	7,470.36
Index Future Open Interest Long Ratio	32.94%	32.13%	31.79%
Index Future Volume Long Ratio	52.32%	50.83%	63.47%
Call Option Open Interest Long Ratio	53.83%	53.34%	55.78%
Call Option Volume Long Ratio	50.19%	49.69%	49.85%
Put Option Open Interest Long Ratio	54.49%	52.02%	54.23%
Put Option Volume Long Ratio	50.56%	49.63%	49.54%
Stock Future Open Interest Long Ratio	65.16%	65.06%	64.93%
Stock Future Volume Long Ratio	50.30%	50.16%	51.10%
Index Futures	Short Covering	Fresh Long	Short Covering
Index Options	Fresh Long	Fresh Short	Fresh Short
Nifty Futures	Fresh Long	Fresh Long	Short Covering
Nifty Options	Fresh Long	Fresh Short	Fresh Short
BankNifty Futures	Long Covering	Fresh Short	Fresh Long
BankNifty Options	Fresh Short	Fresh Short	Fresh Short
FinNifty Futures	Fresh Long	Fresh Long	Fresh Long
FinNifty Options	Fresh Short	Fresh Short	Fresh Short
MidcpNifty Futures	Long Covering	Long Covering	Short Covering
MidcpNifty Options	Short Covering	Fresh Long	Fresh Short
NiftyNxt50 Futures	Short Covering	Fresh Long	Short Covering
NiftyNxt50 Options	Fresh Long	Long Covering	Long Covering
Stock Futures	Fresh Long	Fresh Long	Fresh Long
Stock Options	Fresh Short	Fresh Long	Fresh Short

Nifty F&O Analysis : Major Indices | Options Insights

NIFTY Monthly Expiry (27.03.2025)

The NIFTY index closed at 23668.65. The NIFTY monthly expiry for March 27, 2025 has revealed key trends in open interest. The current Put/Call Ratio is at 0.956 against previous 1.170. The 25000CE option holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 23000PE and 24000CE options. Market participants have shown increased interest with significant open interest additions in the 25000CE option, with open interest additions also seen in the 24000CE and 23800CE options. On the other hand, open interest reductions were prominent in the 31000CE, 22500PE, and 23300PE options. Trading volume was highest in the 23700PE option, followed by the 23800CE and 24000CE options, indicating active trading in these strikes.

NIFTY	Monthly	Expiry:	27-03-2025
Index Spot	PCR OI	Prev PCR OI	PCR VOL
23,668.65	0.956	1.170	0.913
Total Open Interest Change in all CALLs & PUTs:
	Current	Prior	Net Ch
CALL:	20,28,44,800	16,71,57,550	3,56,87,250
PUT:	19,38,68,275	19,55,88,650	-17,20,375
Top CALL Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,000	1,40,30,300	32,87,825	7,69,442
24,000	1,28,30,775	28,54,300	29,03,264
Top CALL Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,000	1,40,30,300	32,87,825	7,69,442
24,000	1,28,30,775	28,54,300	29,03,264
Top CALL Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
31,000	56,28,025	-17,78,325	3,67,197
24,200	70,72,425	-10,62,750	17,44,359
Top CALL Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
23,800	84,18,825	26,99,550	31,46,428
24,000	1,28,30,775	28,54,300	29,03,264
Top PUT Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
23,000	1,30,84,525	12,68,500	11,00,439
22,500	1,27,72,800	-15,59,625	5,86,824
Top PUT Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
23,700	50,52,375	20,63,475	33,99,899
23,800	25,23,525	16,35,450	19,19,243
Top PUT Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
22,500	1,27,72,800	-15,59,625	5,86,824
23,300	72,34,500	-13,78,050	11,83,066
Top PUT Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
23,700	50,52,375	20,63,475	33,99,899
23,600	55,14,300	4,40,775	21,70,486

BANKNIFTY Monthly Expiry (27.03.2025)

The BANKNIFTY index closed at 51607.95. The BANKNIFTY monthly expiry for March 27, 2025 has revealed key trends in open interest. The current Put/Call Ratio is at 1.035 against previous 1.300. The 49000PE option holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 53000CE and 52000CE options. Market participants have shown increased interest with significant open interest additions in the 53000CE option, with open interest additions also seen in the 52000CE and 51900CE options. On the other hand, open interest reductions were prominent in the 47000PE, 49500PE, and 50000PE options. Trading volume was highest in the 52000CE option, followed by the 51800CE and 51000PE options, indicating active trading in these strikes.

BANKNIFTY	Monthly	Expiry:	27-03-2025
Index Spot	PCR OI	Prev PCR OI	PCR VOL
51,607.95	1.035	1.300	0.887
Total Open Interest Change in all CALLs & PUTs:
	Current	Prior	Net Ch
CALL:	3,26,59,965	2,82,20,829	44,39,136
PUT:	3,37,88,190	3,66,90,690	-29,02,500
Top CALL Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
53,000	21,93,390	5,54,250	5,95,773
52,000	18,59,190	4,71,060	10,63,970
Top CALL Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
53,000	21,93,390	5,54,250	5,95,773
52,000	18,59,190	4,71,060	10,63,970
Top CALL Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
51,000	5,34,855	-96,810	57,023
50,500	4,33,410	-92,280	9,189
Top CALL Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
52,000	18,59,190	4,71,060	10,63,970
51,800	7,49,220	2,29,290	6,18,490
Top PUT Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
49,000	24,15,630	-2,08,830	2,76,995
50,000	17,90,190	-2,74,530	4,35,889
Top PUT Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
51,900	2,39,370	1,49,940	3,59,549
51,800	4,05,630	1,46,130	5,15,256
Top PUT Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
47,000	8,31,690	-4,69,830	1,23,988
49,500	14,69,310	-3,16,170	2,73,639
Top PUT Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
51,000	12,60,585	-1,27,230	5,96,313
51,500	10,37,610	1,34,700	5,91,246

FINNIFTY Monthly Expiry (27.03.2025)

The FINNIFTY index closed at 25086. The FINNIFTY monthly expiry for March 27, 2025, has revealed key trends in open interest. The current Put/Call Ratio is at 0.859 against previous 1.096. The 25000PE option holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 26000CE and 25500CE options. Market participants have shown increased interest with significant open interest additions in the 25450CE option, with open interest additions also seen in the 26500CE and 25350CE options. On the other hand, open interest reductions were prominent in the 24000PE, 24200PE, and 24800PE options. Trading volume was highest in the 25000PE option, followed by the 25200CE and 25500CE options, indicating active trading in these strikes.

FINNIFTY	Monthly	Expiry:	27-03-2025
Index Spot	PCR OI	Prev PCR OI	PCR VOL
25,086.00	0.859	1.096	0.786
Total Open Interest Change in all CALLs & PUTs:
	Current	Prior	Net Ch
CALL:	57,29,555	45,79,380	11,50,175
PUT:	49,24,010	50,20,145	-96,135
Top CALL Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
26,000	2,94,320	46,735	35,543
25,500	2,79,110	1,11,800	54,943
Top CALL Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,450	2,68,580	2,44,920	30,575
26,500	2,74,885	1,53,595	18,774
Top CALL Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,100	1,26,425	-58,955	38,438
25,000	2,43,620	-40,300	17,756
Top CALL Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,200	2,60,065	25,740	65,389
25,500	2,79,110	1,11,800	54,943
Top PUT Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,000	3,09,920	1,12,320	66,364
24,500	2,42,125	53,625	26,715
Top PUT Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,000	3,09,920	1,12,320	66,364
25,100	1,64,710	1,01,920	49,321
Top PUT Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
24,000	1,48,590	-1,45,860	17,676
24,200	1,40,205	-86,385	11,738
Top PUT Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
25,000	3,09,920	1,12,320	66,364
25,100	1,64,710	1,01,920	49,321

MIDCPNIFTY Monthly Expiry (27.03.2025)

The MIDCPNIFTY index closed at 11581.4. The MIDCPNIFTY monthly expiry for March 27, 2025 has revealed key trends in open interest. The current Put/Call Ratio is at 0.970 against previous 1.175. The 11800CE option holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 11400PE and 12000CE options. Market participants have shown increased interest with significant open interest additions in the 11800CE option, with open interest additions also seen in the 11400PE and 11600CE options. On the other hand, open interest reductions were prominent in the 63000PE, 55000PE, and 63500PE options. Trading volume was highest in the 11700CE option, followed by the 12000CE and 11800CE options, indicating active trading in these strikes.

MIDCPNIFTY	Monthly	Expiry:	27-03-2025
Index Spot	PCR OI	Prev PCR OI	PCR VOL
11,581.40	0.970	1.175	0.875
Total Open Interest Change in all CALLs & PUTs:
	Current	Prior	Net Ch
CALL:	1,61,97,000	1,42,60,680	19,36,320
PUT:	1,57,07,040	1,67,56,680	-10,49,640
Top CALL Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,800	15,63,600	7,72,920	1,08,415
12,000	13,31,640	1,74,840	1,14,566
Top CALL Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,800	15,63,600	7,72,920	1,08,415
11,600	5,71,080	2,23,440	85,488
Top CALL Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,850	4,05,120	-3,75,000	47,624
12,100	5,88,000	-1,43,040	49,745
Top CALL Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,700	7,98,480	1,49,520	1,22,841
12,000	13,31,640	1,74,840	1,14,566
Top PUT Open Interest:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,400	14,27,760	6,02,640	62,705
11,000	11,85,600	-77,520	42,777
Top PUT Open Interest addition:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,400	14,27,760	6,02,640	62,705
10,800	9,35,040	68,520	16,857
Top PUT Open Interest reduction:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,450	3,56,760	-4,28,160	35,756
11,700	3,07,800	-2,79,360	60,841
Top PUT Volume:
Strike	OI	OI Change	Volume
11,600	6,63,120	56,880	99,762
11,500	8,79,240	43,080	95,816

More Short Covering expected ahead of Expiry on 27th March

With March expiry just around the corner, traders should brace for heightened volatility as positions are rolled over and profit booking kicks in. The uptick in FII long positions provides some support, but mixed PCR trends suggest lingering uncertainty.

Notably, there has been high open interest addition in the 24,000 Call, indicating strong resistance at that level, while 23700-23800 Puts have also seen significant OI buildup, suggesting a potential support zone. This range-bound positioning could lead to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the final sessions before expiry.

FII / FPI trading activity in Capital Market Segment